Tesla is preparing for what analysts are calling its most significant event in nearly a decade as the company unveils its long-awaited Robotaxi on Thursday. The autonomous vehicle, rumored to be named the Cybercab, represents CEO Elon Musk’s vision for transforming Tesla from an electric vehicle manufacturer into an AI and robotics powerhouse.
Tesla’s stock has struggled recently, down 40% from its 2021 peak, but has rallied 12% over the past month as anticipation builds for the event. The unveiling comes at a critical time for the company, which faces mounting concerns about demand and intensifying competition in the EV market. According to Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, “This is the most hyped event that Musk has had in almost a decade. They’ve been talking about autonomous driving, the Robotaxi, for about 10 years.”
Wall Street analysts are divided on what to expect from the event, which will be hosted at Warner Bros. Discovery’s movie studio. UBS maintains a “sell” rating with a $197 price target, expressing skepticism that the Robotaxi can live up to expectations and noting it could take years before the vehicle hits the streets. The bank pointed out the irony of hosting at a Hollywood studio when competitor Waymo already operates actual robotaxi services in Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Truist Securities suggests the event will focus more on artificial intelligence than traditional car models, with Tesla likely targeting a late 2026 release date. The company is also expected to unveil Optimus 2, the third iteration of its humanoid robot, further emphasizing its AI ambitions. Truist maintains a “hold” rating with a $236 price target.
Wedbush Securities takes the most bullish stance, calling the event “seminal and historical” and maintaining an “outperform” rating with a $300 price target. The firm believes AI and full-self-driving (FSD) developments could generate up to $1 trillion in value for Tesla, positioning it as “the most undervalued AI name in the market.”
However, CFRA Research warns that investor expectations may be unrealistically high. Analyst Garrett Nelson notes the vehicle faces “numerous technological hurdles” plus safety and regulatory obstacles, and likely won’t be sold for several years. CFRA maintains a “hold” rating with a $240 price target, cautioning about a potential “sell the news” reaction.
Key Quotes
This is the most hyped event that Musk has had in almost a decade. They’ve been talking about autonomous driving, the Robotaxi, for about 10 years. Now, we finally get to see what’s underneath the hood.
Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, emphasized the significance and long anticipation surrounding Tesla’s Robotaxi unveiling, highlighting how this event represents the culmination of a decade-long promise from Musk.
We believe Robotaxi Day will be seminal and historical day for Musk and Tesla and marks a new chapter of growth around autonomous, FSD, and AI future at Tesla. We continue to believe Tesla is the most undervalued AI name in the market.
Wedbush Securities analysts expressed their bullish outlook on the event, framing Tesla as fundamentally an AI company rather than just an automaker, and suggesting the AI and autonomous driving capabilities could add up to $1 trillion in value.
In our view, investor expectations are sky high, raising the likelihood of a disappointment and a ‘sell the news’ reaction in its aftermath.
Garrett Nelson, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research, provided a cautionary perspective, warning that the hype surrounding the event may have set unrealistic expectations given the technological, safety, and regulatory hurdles that remain before the Robotaxi can be deployed.
We firmly believe that Tesla remains a Robotics/AI play in the future rather than just an EV vendor.
Wedbush Securities strategists articulated their vision of Tesla’s transformation, positioning the company’s future value proposition around artificial intelligence and robotics rather than traditional electric vehicle manufacturing.
Our Take
Tesla’s Robotaxi event represents a critical inflection point not just for the company, but for the entire autonomous vehicle industry. The stark divergence in analyst opinions—from UBS’s skepticism to Wedbush’s $1 trillion AI valuation—reveals the fundamental uncertainty surrounding AI’s near-term commercial viability in complex real-world applications.
What’s particularly noteworthy is the framing shift: Tesla is increasingly being evaluated as an AI and robotics company rather than an automaker. This repositioning strategy mirrors similar moves by other tech giants seeking premium valuations. However, the gap between AI promises and deployment reality remains substantial. While competitors like Waymo already operate commercial robotaxi services, Tesla must prove its vision-based FSD approach can match or exceed sensor-heavy alternatives.
The simultaneous unveiling of Optimus 2 suggests Musk is hedging his bets, diversifying Tesla’s AI narrative beyond vehicles. The real test will be whether Thursday’s demonstrations show genuine technological breakthroughs or merely Hollywood-polished prototypes.
Why This Matters
This event represents a pivotal moment in the convergence of AI and autonomous transportation, with implications extending far beyond Tesla’s stock price. If successful, Tesla’s Robotaxi could accelerate the deployment of AI-powered autonomous vehicles and reshape urban transportation, ride-hailing services, and the broader automotive industry.
The event underscores a critical transformation in how major tech companies are positioning themselves—not as traditional manufacturers but as AI and robotics companies. Wedbush’s assertion that Tesla should be viewed as a “Robotics/AI play” rather than an EV vendor reflects this broader industry shift.
For the AI industry, Tesla’s progress on full-self-driving technology and autonomous vehicles serves as a real-world test of AI’s capabilities in complex, safety-critical applications. The regulatory, technological, and safety challenges Tesla faces will likely inform how other companies approach AI deployment in high-stakes environments. Additionally, the unveiling of Optimus 2 highlights the expanding scope of AI applications beyond vehicles into humanoid robotics, potentially opening new markets and use cases that could transform manufacturing, logistics, and service industries in the coming decade.
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