Venture capital is poised for a transformative decade, according to Alex Witt, general partner at Verda Ventures and cofounder of SWFT Blockchain. Despite predictions of industry decline in 2025 due to high interest rates, Witt identifies three major trends that will reshape VC investing through 2035.
Emerging managers will dominate returns, Witt predicts, as limited partners recognize that successful early funds don’t guarantee continued success. “Emerging managers have been traditionally underfunded despite their success,” he explained. Data supports this thesis: only 17% of funds larger than $750 million return over 2.5 times capital, while funds under $249 million are disproportionately represented in top-performing quartiles. This shift toward smaller, nimble funds will create new opportunities for managers who’ve launched fewer than three funds.
Five transformative technologies represent unprecedented VC opportunities, according to Witt, who describes the current era as a new “industrial renaissance.” Generative AI leads the pack, with companies possessing unique datasets like Google (YouTube) and xAI (X and Tesla data) positioned to dominate. Witt expects generative AI to revolutionize drug discovery with faster trials and enable real-time, data-driven trading in finance.
Robotics represents another major opportunity, particularly generative AI-driven physical AI from companies like Nvidia and Tesla, which Witt says is “positioned to dominate this area with its ‘robots on wheels’ approach to manufacturing.” Autonomous electric vehicles will dramatically reduce costs—over 70% of Uber ride costs are labor-related, and autonomous transport will significantly cut expenses. Chinese carmaker BYD stands out as a global leader in this space.
Blockchain technology is enabling low-cost, borderless transactions, with MiniPay becoming Kenya’s #1 app, surpassing Facebook and Instagram in downloads. Biotech, particularly gene-based therapies like CRISPR and mRNA technologies, offers precision treatments for genetic abnormalities. Witt compares this era to the early 20th century’s transformative innovations like electricity and the internal combustion engine.
Africa and the Global South will emerge as innovation leaders, driven by demographic trends. “Demographics are destiny,” Witt stated, noting that Africa leads global population growth with a fertility rate of 4.18, compared to Korea’s 0.68. All top 20 fastest-growing populations are in the Global South, creating expanding markets where “one or two successful companies can offset eight or nine failures, which is critical for VC success.”
Key Quotes
Emerging managers have been traditionally underfunded despite their success
Alex Witt, general partner at Verda Ventures, explains why smaller VC funds will drive higher returns in the AI and technology sectors, as data shows funds under $249 million consistently outperform larger funds in backing transformative technologies.
This era is reminiscent of the early 20th century’s transformative, broad-based innovations like electricity and the internal combustion engine
Witt draws a historical parallel to emphasize the magnitude of current AI and robotics breakthroughs, suggesting these technologies will have similarly revolutionary impacts on society and create massive VC opportunities.
Demographics are destiny
Witt emphasizes that population growth in Africa and the Global South will drive AI innovation and VC investment away from aging populations in developed nations, fundamentally reshaping where technology companies emerge and scale.
Market leader Tesla is positioned to dominate this area with its ‘robots on wheels’ approach to manufacturing
Witt highlights how AI-driven robotics is transforming automotive manufacturing, positioning Tesla as a leader in the convergence of artificial intelligence and physical automation that will define the next decade of innovation.
Our Take
Witt’s predictions reveal a critical insight: AI isn’t just another technology sector—it’s the foundation for the next industrial revolution. His emphasis on generative AI, robotics, and autonomous systems suggests we’re moving beyond software-only AI into an era of embodied intelligence that will reshape physical industries. The focus on emerging managers is particularly astute; smaller funds can move faster and take bigger risks on unproven AI applications, while mega-funds face pressure to back established players. The demographic argument for Africa is compelling—young, growing populations provide both the market size and risk appetite necessary for AI adoption at scale. However, Witt’s warning about industry consolidation is sobering: like the dot-com era, most AI startups will fail, with only one or two dominant players emerging per category. This makes picking winners in AI even more critical than capital deployment volume.
Why This Matters
This analysis matters because it positions artificial intelligence and robotics at the center of venture capital’s future, signaling where billions in investment dollars will flow over the next decade. The prediction that generative AI will transform multiple industries—from pharmaceuticals to finance—indicates AI’s expanding role beyond tech into traditional sectors. The emphasis on AI-driven physical robotics and autonomous vehicles suggests we’re entering a phase where AI moves from digital applications into the physical world, fundamentally changing manufacturing, transportation, and labor economics.
The demographic shift toward Africa and the Global South for AI innovation challenges Silicon Valley’s dominance and suggests AI development will become more globally distributed. This could democratize AI access and create solutions tailored to diverse populations. For businesses, the message is clear: AI investments through smaller, emerging funds may yield better returns than backing established players. The comparison to early 20th-century transformations suggests we’re at an inflection point where AI-powered technologies will reshape society as profoundly as electricity once did, making strategic positioning in this space critical for long-term success.
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