OpenAI is embarking on an ambitious journey to transform ChatGPT into a major advertising platform, with analysts projecting the company could generate several billion dollars in ad revenue this year and potentially reach $25 billion by 2030. This would position OpenAI alongside advertising giants like TikTok ($43 billion projected for 2025), Microsoft ($19 billion), and Apple ($13 billion).
Currently, ChatGPT is testing ads among select brands in the US, displaying them at the bottom of responses on its free and $8-a-month Go tier. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar provided examples during a CNBC interview: users searching for Dallas accommodations might see ads from Expedia, Booking.com, or Airbnb, while expectant mothers researching strollers could receive ads from baby specialty retailers.
However, advertising experts emphasize that OpenAI must evolve beyond basic contextual advertising to build a multibillion-dollar business. According to Gartner analyst Nicole Greene, OpenAI possesses “marketing and advertising gold” through its wealth of natural language query data that could match users with products they actually want to buy. Yet Michael Cohen from Horizon Media warns that contextual advertising alone is “adequate, but not necessarily the top performers.”
The path to $25 billion requires sophisticated infrastructure. Michael Komasinski, CEO of adtech company Criteo, estimates that small-scale contextual ads would generate only $1-2 billion by 2027. To scale significantly, OpenAI needs to develop a conversion API that allows advertisers to track user actions like purchases or app downloads—similar to what Google, Meta, and Amazon have perfected.
Consumer trust remains paramount. OpenAI has published “ads principles” stating that advertisements will be clearly labeled, separate from organic answers, and won’t influence ChatGPT’s responses. The company promises to keep user conversations private and won’t sell user data to advertisers.
Expansion beyond ChatGPT appears essential for reaching the $25 billion target. Experts suggest OpenAI’s AI-generated video app Sora could host TikTok-style vertical video ads, while its agentic commerce protocol and instant checkout feature offer opportunities for sponsored listings. The company’s Atlas browser and potential AI device collaboration with former Apple design chief Jony Ive could further multiply advertising opportunities.
Leadership matters in advertising, and OpenAI has appointed Vijaye Raji to lead its ads team, reporting to Fidji Simo, CEO of applications. Raji, who joined OpenAI when it acquired his startup Statsig for $1.1 billion in September, brings experience from Meta where he worked on Audience Network and mobile app install products.
Key Quotes
That’s marketing and advertising gold. Imagine actually getting a relevant ad!
Gartner analyst Nicole Greene emphasized the enormous opportunity OpenAI has to leverage natural language query data to match users with products they actually want to buy, highlighting the potential advantage ChatGPT has over traditional advertising platforms.
I wouldn’t expect it to perform because most contextual advertising is OK, it’s adequate, but not necessarily the top performers.
Michael Cohen, EVP of performance media at Horizon Media, expressed skepticism about OpenAI’s initial contextual advertising approach, noting that it lacks the sophisticated targeting algorithms that make Google, Meta, and Amazon’s ad platforms so effective.
They will have to create a performance ad unit that doesn’t ruin the customer experience but does allow advertisers to drive incremental results.
Michael Komasinski, CEO of Criteo, outlined the critical challenge facing OpenAI: developing conversion tracking infrastructure that enables advertisers to measure actual business outcomes while maintaining the user experience that has made ChatGPT popular.
That’s where it gets interesting: How big can the company get outside the core app itself? That’s a multiplier on ads.
Komasinski highlighted that OpenAI’s path to $25 billion in ad revenue likely depends on expanding beyond ChatGPT into products like Sora, Atlas browser, and potential AI devices, rather than relying solely on the core chatbot application.
Our Take
OpenAI faces a delicate balancing act that will define the future of AI monetization. The company’s advertising ambitions reveal both the promise and peril of commercializing conversational AI. While the natural language data OpenAI possesses is indeed “marketing gold,” converting that advantage into $25 billion requires infrastructure, relationships, and trust-building that takes competitors years to develop.
The most telling aspect is what’s missing: OpenAI lacks the conversion tracking, measurement tools, and advertiser relationships that underpin successful ad platforms. Hiring Vijaye Raji signals seriousness, but building performance advertising capabilities from scratch—or through acquisitions—will test whether OpenAI can execute beyond its AI research strengths.
The real question isn’t whether ChatGPT can show ads, but whether it can do so without alienating users who value its perceived objectivity. If OpenAI succeeds, it validates advertising as a viable AI business model. If it fails, the industry may conclude that some AI applications are better served by subscription or enterprise models, fundamentally shaping how AI companies approach monetization.
Why This Matters
This development represents a pivotal moment in AI monetization strategy, as OpenAI attempts to diversify beyond subscription revenue and API access. The company’s advertising ambitions signal a maturation of the AI industry, where leading platforms must balance innovation with sustainable business models.
The stakes extend beyond OpenAI’s bottom line. If successful, ChatGPT could fundamentally reshape digital advertising by leveraging conversational AI and natural language understanding to deliver unprecedented ad relevance. This threatens established players like Google and Meta, who have dominated performance advertising for decades.
Consumer trust hangs in the balance. Users have embraced ChatGPT as an unbiased information source and even a therapeutic tool. Introducing advertising without compromising that trust—or the quality of AI responses—will test whether AI platforms can maintain authenticity while pursuing aggressive monetization. The outcome will likely influence how other AI companies approach advertising and set precedents for AI ethics in commercial contexts.
For the broader AI industry, OpenAI’s advertising experiment could validate alternative revenue models beyond enterprise licensing, potentially accelerating AI adoption while raising important questions about data privacy and algorithmic transparency.
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Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-openai-can-build-a-25-billion-advertising-business-2026-1