NVIDIA Corporation may be preparing to surprise Wall Street with an accelerated release of its Rubin GPU chip, potentially launching six months earlier than expected, according to a recent analysis from Melius Research. Analyst Ben Reitzes suggests that while NVIDIA initially indicated Rubin would be a calendar year 2026 release—with investors expecting a second-half debut heavily weighted toward Q4—mounting evidence points to a possible first-half 2026 launch.
Several key indicators support this earlier timeline. Reports suggest NVIDIA is encouraging SK Hynix to accelerate production of next-generation memory components, while Taiwanese manufacturing partners are reportedly already working on designs for Rubin-based AI servers. Additionally, TSMC appears to be planning expanded advanced packaging capacity to accommodate the earlier production schedule.
NVIDIA announced the Rubin chip in June 2024 as the successor to its Blackwell GPU, which is expected to see ramped-up deployment in early 2025. An accelerated Rubin release could help NVIDIA exceed consensus revenue growth estimates of approximately 30% for 2026, while simultaneously addressing investor concerns about an AI bubble and “law of large numbers” limitations that could constrain growth for the chip giant.
“Accelerating the Rubin release (likely a blockbuster - with blazing speeds, lower power and tons of memory) would blunt some of these concerns and could increase target multiples on the buyside,” Reitzes explained in his research note. The analyst projects NVIDIA could deliver earnings per share of $5.55 in calendar year 2026, which at a 35x profit multiple would support a $195 price target—representing potential upside of 34% from current levels.
However, Reitzes emphasized that even if Rubin doesn’t launch early, it wouldn’t undermine the bullish investment thesis for NVIDIA stock. He noted that product launches are rarely early despite best efforts, citing Blackwell as an example, and characterized an early Rubin release as a “nice to have” or “thesis accelerator” rather than critical to the long-term growth story.
NVIDIA shares have surged 193% in 2024, following an extraordinary 236% gain in 2023, reflecting the company’s dominant position in AI chip manufacturing. A spokesperson for NVIDIA declined to comment on the speculation about an accelerated Rubin timeline.
Key Quotes
While Nvidia told us before that Rubin was a CY26 release, we believe investors were anchored to the C2H, heavily weighted to 4Q ‘in volume’ due to supply chain indications
Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes explained the market’s previous expectations for Rubin’s release timeline, setting up the contrast with his new analysis suggesting a first-half 2026 launch instead.
Accelerating the Rubin release (likely a blockbuster - with blazing speeds, lower power and tons of memory) would blunt some of these concerns and could increase target multiples on the buyside
Reitzes outlined why an early Rubin launch would be strategically significant, addressing investor concerns about AI bubble fears and growth limitations while potentially boosting NVIDIA’s valuation multiples.
Look, as evidenced by Blackwell, launches are rarely ’early’ despite best efforts. So, if Rubin launches a little sooner, it’s a ’nice to have’ or maybe a ’thesis accelerator’ - but not critical to the long-term story
Reitzes provided important context that tempers expectations, acknowledging that early product launches are uncommon and emphasizing that NVIDIA’s investment thesis remains strong regardless of Rubin’s exact timing.
Our Take
The speculation around an accelerated Rubin release highlights NVIDIA’s extraordinary position in the AI ecosystem—the company is so dominant that even rumors about its product roadmap can move market sentiment. What’s particularly noteworthy is the supply chain intelligence suggesting coordinated acceleration across multiple partners, from memory manufacturers to foundries. This indicates NVIDIA may be responding to insatiable demand from hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, who are racing to build out AI infrastructure. The 193% stock gain in 2024 following 236% in 2023 reflects not just hype, but genuine revenue and earnings growth driven by AI adoption. However, investors should remember that maintaining this growth trajectory becomes mathematically harder as NVIDIA’s market cap approaches $4 trillion. An early Rubin launch would be impressive, but the real question is whether AI infrastructure spending can sustain these levels through 2026 and beyond.
Why This Matters
This potential development carries significant implications for the AI infrastructure industry and the broader technology sector. NVIDIA’s GPU chips are the backbone of AI model training and deployment, powering everything from large language models to autonomous vehicles. An earlier-than-expected Rubin release would demonstrate NVIDIA’s ability to maintain its blistering pace of innovation despite already holding a dominant market position.
The timing is particularly crucial as competitors like AMD and emerging AI chip startups attempt to challenge NVIDIA’s supremacy. An accelerated product cycle could help NVIDIA maintain its technological lead and pricing power in the rapidly evolving AI chip market. For businesses investing heavily in AI infrastructure, an early Rubin launch could mean access to more powerful, energy-efficient computing capabilities sooner than anticipated, potentially accelerating AI deployment timelines across industries.
Moreover, this news addresses growing concerns about whether NVIDIA can sustain its extraordinary growth trajectory. By potentially delivering next-generation technology ahead of schedule, NVIDIA would signal that the AI infrastructure buildout has substantial runway remaining, countering narratives about an AI investment bubble or market saturation.
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