Nvidia’s stock has made a remarkable recovery, clearing critical technical levels after experiencing the largest single-day market value decline in history following the $589 billion DeepSeek sell-off in late January. On Tuesday, the GPU maker’s shares reached an intraday high of $143.44, surpassing its January 24 closing price of $142.62—the last trading session before the historic downturn.
The stock has surged approximately 22% in February alone, demonstrating strong investor confidence as the company prepares to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 26. While shares pared some gains to trade at $140.34 (up about 1% for the day), the rally has pushed Nvidia above several closely watched technical indicators, including its 200-day and 50-day moving averages.
Technical analysts have been monitoring key resistance levels closely. David Keller, Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research, identified $130 as a critical threshold, which Nvidia has successfully cleared. Meanwhile, Ari Wald, head of technical research at Oppenheimer & Co., pointed to $140 as the key resistance level to watch—a hurdle the stock is now testing.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya emphasized that the upcoming earnings report represents “the next important test for AI bulls.” He cautioned that volatility could follow the results, potentially driven by a subdued first-quarter outlook as the company transitions from Hopper to its next-generation Blackwell GPUs. However, Arya maintains that long-term fundamentals remain strong, citing Nvidia’s “leading new product pipeline” including the GB300 and Rubin chips, as well as expansion into robotics and quantum technologies that will be showcased at the upcoming GTC conference on March 17.
Despite the significant rally, Arya argues that Nvidia’s valuation remains attractive at a 24x price-to-earnings ratio based on 2026 estimates—at the lower end of its historical range of 25x to 56x. This suggests potential upside even after the recent gains.
Super Micro Computer, a key Nvidia partner that sells server racks integrated with Nvidia GPUs, provided additional positive signals during its earnings call last week. CEO and founder Charles Liang indicated that the company expects revenue growth to accelerate with the Blackwell rollout, stating that “the beginning of our transition from Hopper to Blackwell GPUs” will drive platform growth as supply ramps up.
Key Quotes
The next important test for AI bulls comes on Feb-26 when NVDA reports FQ4 results
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya emphasized the significance of Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, highlighting it as a critical moment for investors bullish on artificial intelligence stocks and the broader AI market trajectory.
We expect positive momentum to resume as investors look forward to NVDA’s leading new product pipeline (GB300, Rubin) and TAM expansion into robotics and quantum technologies at upcoming GTC conference (Mar-17)
Vivek Arya outlined the long-term growth drivers for Nvidia beyond the immediate earnings results, pointing to new chip architectures and expansion into emerging technology sectors that could sustain the company’s growth trajectory.
Highlighted by the beginning of our transition from Hopper to Blackwell GPUs, we expect the growth in new generation platforms to accelerate as supply ramps this quarter and beyond
Super Micro Computer CEO Charles Liang provided validation of Nvidia’s product transition, indicating that the Blackwell GPU rollout is already driving business momentum for companies in the AI infrastructure ecosystem.
Our Take
Nvidia’s rapid recovery from the DeepSeek sell-off reveals a market that may have overreacted to competitive threats. The technical breakout above key resistance levels suggests institutional investors are positioning for continued AI infrastructure growth. However, the real test lies ahead with earnings and forward guidance. The Blackwell transition represents both opportunity and risk—while it promises performance improvements that could sustain Nvidia’s moat, any supply constraints or demand softness could trigger volatility. The expansion into robotics and quantum computing is strategically sound, diversifying beyond data center GPUs. With valuation at the lower end of historical ranges despite the rally, Nvidia appears positioned for further upside if it can demonstrate sustained AI demand and successful execution of its product roadmap. The GTC conference in March will be equally important as earnings for setting the narrative around AI’s next phase.
Why This Matters
This recovery is significant for the broader AI infrastructure market and investor sentiment toward artificial intelligence investments. Nvidia’s rebound from the DeepSeek-induced sell-off demonstrates the market’s continued confidence in the company’s dominant position in AI chip manufacturing, despite concerns about emerging competition.
The upcoming earnings report will provide crucial insights into AI infrastructure demand and whether enterprise spending on AI remains robust. The transition to Blackwell GPUs represents a critical inflection point that could determine the trajectory of AI development over the next year, as these chips promise significantly enhanced performance for training and deploying large language models.
Nvidia’s expansion into robotics and quantum computing signals the broadening applications of AI technology beyond traditional data centers. This diversification could unlock new revenue streams and solidify Nvidia’s position as the foundational infrastructure provider for the AI revolution. For investors, businesses, and the tech industry at large, Nvidia’s performance serves as a bellwether for the health and sustainability of AI investments, making the February 26 earnings report a pivotal moment for market direction.
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