Mustafa Suleyman, Microsoft’s AI CEO, has publicly challenged Sam Altman’s optimistic predictions about when artificial general intelligence (AGI) will become a reality, suggesting a significantly longer timeline than the OpenAI chief executive has indicated.
During an interview on The Verge’s Decoder podcast, Suleyman provided his perspective on when AGI—defined as AI with human-level proficiency across tasks—might be achievable. His comments came in response to Altman’s October statement during a Reddit ask-me-anything session, where the OpenAI cofounder claimed that AGI is “achievable with current hardware.”
While Suleyman agreed with the general direction of Altman’s timeline, he introduced substantial caveats. He estimates AGI could arrive within the next two to five generations of hardware, translating to approximately five to seven years, with each generation taking 18 to 24 months to develop. He noted that five generations of technology, such as new versions of Nvidia’s GB200 chips, could potentially take up to a decade to materialize.
“I don’t want to say I think it’s a high probability that it’s two years away, but I think within the next five to seven years, since each generation takes 18 to 24 months now,” Suleyman explained. He emphasized that “the uncertainty around this is so high that any categorical declarations just feel sort of ungrounded to me and over the top.”
The disagreement highlights fundamental differences in how AI leaders define AGI. Suleyman defines it as “a general-purpose learning system that can perform well across all human-level training environments”—including physical labor. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s official definition describes AGI as “a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work.”
Suleyman expressed concern that AGI has become “so dramatized” that the industry loses focus on the specific capabilities these systems can actually deliver. Interestingly, weeks after his Reddit comments, Altman softened his stance at The New York Times DealBook Summit in December, stating that while AGI will arrive sooner than expected, it “will matter much less” than anticipated.
Despite these public disagreements and reports that OpenAI is working to remove an AGI-related clause from its Microsoft contract, Suleyman maintains confidence in Microsoft’s multibillion-dollar investment in OpenAI. “Naturally, in any partnership, there are little tensions here and there, but fundamentally, we will win together,” he told the podcast host.
Key Quotes
I don’t want to say I think it’s a high probability that it’s two years away, but I think within the next five to seven years, since each generation takes 18 to 24 months now
Mustafa Suleyman, Microsoft’s AI CEO, provided this measured response when discussing AGI timelines, directly contradicting Sam Altman’s more optimistic predictions and emphasizing the longer development cycles required for meaningful hardware advances.
The uncertainty around this is so high that any categorical declarations just feel sort of ungrounded to me and over the top
Suleyman used this statement to criticize overly confident predictions about AGI arrival, suggesting that leaders like Altman may be making premature claims without sufficient acknowledgment of the technical challenges that remain.
The challenge with AGI is that it’s become so dramatized that we sort of end up not focusing on the specific capabilities of what the system can do
This observation from Suleyman highlights his concern that excessive hype around AGI is distracting the industry from developing and evaluating concrete, practical AI capabilities that can deliver real-world value today.
Naturally, in any partnership, there are little tensions here and there, but fundamentally, we will win together
Despite the public disagreement on AGI timelines and reports of contractual tensions, Suleyman expressed confidence in the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership, acknowledging friction while emphasizing their shared interests and mutual success.
Our Take
This public disagreement reveals a maturing AI industry grappling with the gap between ambitious vision and technical reality. Suleyman’s pushback against Altman’s optimism is significant because it comes from within Microsoft, OpenAI’s largest investor and partner. His more conservative stance likely reflects Microsoft’s position as a publicly-traded company that must balance innovation enthusiasm with shareholder accountability.
The definitional debate around AGI is particularly telling—without consensus on what constitutes AGI, any timeline becomes meaningless. Suleyman’s inclusion of physical labor in his definition sets a much higher bar than OpenAI’s focus on “economically valuable work,” which could theoretically be achieved through narrow AI systems.
The reported contractual tensions around AGI clauses suggest that even the architects of these partnerships didn’t anticipate how quickly they’d need to revisit fundamental assumptions. This disagreement may ultimately benefit the industry by tempering unrealistic expectations and encouraging more rigorous evaluation of AI capabilities versus hype.
Why This Matters
This public disagreement between two of the most influential figures in artificial intelligence reveals critical tensions within the industry about realistic timelines for AGI development and what constitutes true artificial general intelligence. The debate matters because it affects investor expectations, regulatory approaches, and public understanding of AI’s trajectory.
Suleyman’s more conservative timeline suggests that despite rapid advances in AI capabilities, significant technical hurdles remain before achieving human-level artificial intelligence. His emphasis on the “dramatization” of AGI highlights concerns that hype may be outpacing reality in the AI sector, potentially leading to misallocated resources or unrealistic expectations.
The discussion also underscores the lack of consensus on what AGI actually means, with different definitions potentially leading to premature declarations of success. For businesses planning AI integration strategies and policymakers developing AI regulations, understanding these realistic timelines is crucial. The fact that OpenAI is reportedly seeking to modify its AGI-related contractual obligations with Microsoft adds another layer of complexity to the commercial relationships underpinning AI development, suggesting that even the companies building these systems are uncertain about when and how AGI will materialize.
Recommended Reading
For those interested in learning more about artificial intelligence, machine learning, and effective AI communication, here are some excellent resources:
Recommended Reading
Related Stories
- Sam Altman’s Bold AI Predictions: AGI, Jobs, and the Future by 2025
- Artificial General Intelligence Could Arrive by 2024, According to AI Experts
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Hints at Potential Restructuring in 2024
- OpenAI’s Valuation Soars as AI Race Heats Up
- The AI Hype Cycle: Reality Check and Future Expectations