The article explores the debate around whether progress in artificial intelligence (AI) is slowing down or not. It highlights the views of experts like Gary Marcus, who argues that AI has hit a plateau and is struggling to make significant breakthroughs. Marcus cites the lack of progress in areas like common sense reasoning and general intelligence as evidence. However, others like Dario Amodei from Anthropic believe that AI progress is accelerating, pointing to advancements in large language models and AI systems’ increasing capabilities. The article also discusses the challenges of measuring AI progress and the potential for AI to stagnate or experience discontinuous progress. It examines the implications of AI progress slowing down, such as reduced economic growth and a shift in the balance of power between nations. Ultimately, the article presents a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the complexities and uncertainties surrounding the pace of AI development.
Source: https://time.com/7178328/is-ai-progress-slowing-down/