In a surprising strategic shift, Apple has extended software support for older iPhone models rather than following its traditional pattern of making devices obsolete. The company announced that iOS 18 will support the same older devices as iOS 17, including the iPhone XR from September 2018, meaning some devices will receive at least seven years of support. Apple now supports an unprecedented 28 iPhone models (including second and third-generation iPhone SE).
This departure from Apple’s typical “upgrade cycle” strategy—which generates billions in revenue by forcing users to purchase new devices—appears driven by the company’s artificial intelligence rollout timeline. Apple is gradually introducing Apple Intelligence features for its newest iPhones, but these capabilities won’t be fully available until 2025. Meanwhile, Google and Samsung already offer Android smartphones with more comprehensive AI features.
The timing is critical: if Apple made older iPhones obsolete now, millions of consumers shopping for new smartphones might defect to Android devices to access advanced AI capabilities. “Apple wants no defections,” explained Dan Ives, tech analyst at Wedbush Securities. The company has been gaining market share in recent years, making user retention paramount.
Apple’s strategy mirrors commitments from Android manufacturers. Samsung pledged seven years of software updates for Galaxy phones earlier this year, and Apple has now matched this promise. However, there’s a catch: Apple Intelligence will only work on iPhone 16 models and the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max. This limitation sets up a potential massive upgrade cycle in 2025 when the full AI features launch.
According to Ives, Apple is “changing the pattern this time” by keeping all users on the iOS platform until compelling AI features arrive. “The biggest upgrade cycle in Apple’s history is on deck,” he predicted, suggesting that truly innovative AI capabilities could motivate millions to upgrade simultaneously in 2025 rather than trickling upgrades throughout 2024.
Key Quotes
Apple wants no defections
Dan Ives, tech analyst at Wedbush Securities, explained Apple’s motivation for maintaining support for older iPhone models. This statement underscores how critical user retention has become as Apple faces competition from AI-enabled Android devices.
They want to keep everyone on, and then the upgrades to Apple Intelligence begin
Ives described Apple’s strategic timing, revealing that the company is deliberately delaying its traditional upgrade cycle to ensure users don’t switch to Android before Apple’s AI features are ready in 2025.
It’s about changing the pattern this time. The biggest upgrade cycle in Apple’s history is on deck.
Ives predicted that Apple’s AI rollout could trigger unprecedented device upgrades in 2025, suggesting that compelling AI features will provide genuine motivation for users to replace older phones rather than forced obsolescence.
Our Take
Apple’s extended device support represents a calculated gamble that AI features will be compelling enough to drive voluntary upgrades rather than forced ones. This is a remarkable admission that traditional hardware improvements have reached diminishing returns—only transformative AI capabilities can justify new purchases. The strategy also reveals Apple’s vulnerability: despite its ecosystem strength, the company recognizes that AI superiority could override brand loyalty. The restriction of Apple Intelligence to only the newest models creates an interesting paradox—supporting old devices while ensuring AI exclusivity. This could backfire if users feel manipulated, or succeed brilliantly if the AI features truly deliver. The 2025 timeline will be a crucial test of whether AI can drive the smartphone industry’s next growth phase or if we’ve reached peak smartphone innovation.
Why This Matters
This strategic pivot reveals how artificial intelligence is fundamentally reshaping smartphone industry dynamics and business models. Apple’s decision to sacrifice short-term upgrade revenue demonstrates that AI capabilities have become the primary competitive battleground in mobile technology. The company faces an existential threat: losing users to Android’s already-available AI features could permanently erode its ecosystem advantage.
The implications extend beyond Apple. This signals that AI features are now must-have differentiators rather than optional enhancements, forcing manufacturers to rethink traditional product cycles. For consumers, the AI arms race means better device longevity and more compelling reasons to upgrade based on functionality rather than forced obsolescence.
The 2025 timeline also highlights the complexity of deploying sophisticated AI at scale. Even Apple, with its vast resources, needs over a year to fully implement Apple Intelligence. This suggests that meaningful AI integration requires fundamental architectural changes, not just software updates. The potential “biggest upgrade cycle in Apple’s history” could validate AI as the next major technology transition, similar to the smartphone revolution itself.
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Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-compatible-ios-18-apple-ai-2024-9