US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall delivered a stark assessment of future warfare on Monday, declaring that artificial intelligence and machine-speed decision-making will be critical to winning wars within the next 25 years. Speaking at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event, Kendall outlined a vision where combat decisions occur at speeds far beyond human capability.
Future warfare will be “highly automated, highly autonomous, action at long range, precision,” Kendall emphasized, with space emerging as a “decisive theater.” The proliferation of sensor technology and machine learning has already enabled complex kill chains to execute on dramatically compressed timelines. “We’re going to be in a world where decisions will not be made at human speed; they’re going to be made at machine speed,” the Air Force Secretary stated.
These remarks align with the Department of the Air Force’s December 2024 report titled “The Department of the Air Force in 2050,” which predicts that conflicts in cyber warfare and electronic warfare will move at speeds “vastly exceeding human decision time constants.” The report explicitly states that AI technologies will make crucial decisions with no possibility of human intervention, and that victory will be determined by “which combatant has fielded the most advanced AI technology.”
China’s rapid military modernization drives much of this urgency. The Air Force’s 2050 plans note that “China is doing everything it can to exploit emerging technologies to field forces designed to defeat the United States in the Western Pacific, especially in space and in the air.” China has developed a network of hundreds of military satellites that may assist in targeting US troops, prompting Kendall to call for a more powerful Space Force—comparing the needed transformation from “having a merchant marine to essentially having a Navy.”
The Air Force is already implementing AI capabilities, including AI-assisted flight navigation to counter potential GPS disruptions from space attacks, developing uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft, and experimenting with AI-piloted fighter aircraft. These developments come as Beijing’s investments gradually erode American air supremacy.
Kendall also emphasized the need to strengthen both defensive and offensive cyber capabilities, particularly following recent alarming hacks of US telecommunications systems and the Treasury, allegedly by Chinese actors. The Air Force’s 2050 report predicts that “by 2050, we can reasonably expect autonomous vehicle operation to be the norm, in all domains.”
However, Kendall acknowledged significant challenges ahead: “We’re gonna have to figure out how to manage this in a way which is cost effective, which is consistent with our values, which is militarily competitive.”
Key Quotes
We’re going to be in a world where decisions will not be made at human speed; they’re going to be made at machine speed.
Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall made this statement at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event, emphasizing the fundamental shift in warfare where AI will make combat decisions faster than humans can process information.
These technologies will be used to make crucial decisions with no possibility of human intervention. Victory or defeat in the air or in space at the human scale is likely to be determined by which combatant has fielded the most advanced AI technology.
From the Department of the Air Force’s December 2024 report on 2050 capabilities, this quote explicitly acknowledges that future warfare will involve fully autonomous AI decision-making without human oversight in critical combat situations.
China is doing everything it can to exploit the opportunities that emerging technologies are providing to field forces designed to defeat the United States in the Western Pacific, especially in space and in the air.
This assessment from the Air Force’s 2050 planning document highlights the competitive pressure driving US military AI development, positioning China as the primary adversary in an AI-enabled military technology race.
We’re gonna have to figure out how to manage this in a way which is cost effective, which is consistent with our values, which is militarily competitive.
Secretary Kendall acknowledged the complex challenge of deploying autonomous AI weapons systems while maintaining ethical standards and American values, recognizing this as “a tough problem to resolve.”
Our Take
The Air Force Secretary’s candid admission that AI will make life-and-death combat decisions without human intervention represents a Rubicon moment for military AI. While autonomous weapons have been discussed for years, this is among the most explicit acknowledgments from senior US military leadership that fully autonomous AI combat systems are not just possible but inevitable and necessary.
What’s particularly striking is the urgency driven by China’s military modernization. The Pentagon clearly views this as an existential competition where falling behind in AI capabilities could mean losing future conflicts. This will accelerate military AI spending and development, but also raises serious questions about AI safety, accountability, and the risk of AI-driven escalation in conflicts.
The challenge Kendall identifies—balancing military effectiveness with American values—may prove the most difficult. How do you maintain meaningful human control over weapons systems that must operate faster than humans can think? This military dilemma mirrors broader societal questions about AI autonomy and control that will only intensify as AI capabilities advance.
Why This Matters
This announcement represents a watershed moment in military AI adoption, signaling that the US military is preparing for a fundamental transformation in how wars are fought. The Air Force Secretary’s explicit acknowledgment that human decision-making will be too slow for future combat marks a dramatic shift in military doctrine and raises profound questions about autonomous weapons systems.
The geopolitical implications are enormous, as this effectively frames the US-China competition as an AI arms race where technological superiority will determine military outcomes. China’s rapid development of military space capabilities and AI systems is forcing the Pentagon to accelerate its own AI integration across all domains—air, space, cyber, and ground.
For the AI industry, this translates into massive defense spending on AI technologies, from machine learning systems and autonomous vehicles to advanced chip technology. The Biden Administration’s recent restrictions on chip technology exports underscore how AI capabilities are now viewed as critical national security assets. The challenge of developing AI systems that operate at machine speed while remaining “consistent with our values” will drive innovation in AI safety, ethics, and human-machine teaming—issues that extend far beyond military applications into civilian AI development.
Recommended Reading
For those interested in learning more about artificial intelligence, machine learning, and effective AI communication, here are some excellent resources: