Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has declared that AI-powered drones will revolutionize modern warfare, making traditional military hardware like tanks obsolete. Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, Schmidt argued that the dramatic cost disparity between automated drones and conventional military equipment would fundamentally transform how wars are fought.
Schmidt emphasized the economic reality of drone warfare, stating that a $5,000 drone can destroy a $5 million tank, making the latter “largely useless now.” He urged the US military to abandon its stockpiles of thousands of tanks and instead invest heavily in drone technology, suggesting they “buy 10, buy 20, buy 50, buy 100” drones instead.
The tech executive brings significant credibility to these predictions through nearly a decade of advising the US government and military on technology matters. Schmidt served as chair of the Defense Innovation Board, which advises the Department of Defense starting in 2016, and has chaired the US National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. His insights are informed by both policy experience and practical application.
Schmidt is actively developing AI drone technology through his startup White Stork, which builds AI attack drones specifically to assist Ukraine. Working alongside former Udacity and Kittyhawk CEO Sebastian Thrun, Schmidt aims to use AI “in complicated, powerful ways” for military applications. Forbes previously reported that Schmidt’s interest extends to exploding drones or loitering munitions—unmanned systems packed with explosives that can hover above an area before striking their targets.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has validated Schmidt’s predictions, with drone warfare emerging as a dominant element of the battlefield. Cheap first-person-view drones have threatened virtually everything that moves, including vehicles, aircraft, and soldiers. Even advanced tanks like the Russian T-90 and American armor have proven vulnerable to these threats, forcing tank crews to adapt with extensive explosive reactive armor and cage armor for protection.
Schmidt noted the rapid evolution of drone tactics, expressing surprise at the pace of innovation: “If you look at the drone tactics, the drone tactics are changing every day.” Ukraine has developed its own sophisticated drone program, producing advanced systems for land, air, and sea missions. While conventional warfighting elements like tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery remain active, Schmidt believes that as unmanned technology matures—especially with AI integration—the battlefield landscape will fundamentally change.
Key Quotes
The world has an awful lot of tanks. Those tanks are largely useless now. A $5,000 drone can destroy a $5 million tank.
Eric Schmidt made this stark assessment at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Saudi Arabia, highlighting the dramatic economic disparity that makes AI-powered drones a game-changing military technology compared to traditional armored vehicles.
The cost of autonomy has fallen so quickly that the drone war, which is the future of conflict, will get rid of, eventually, tanks, artillery, and mortars.
Schmidt emphasized how rapidly declining costs for AI and autonomous systems are making drone warfare economically inevitable, predicting the obsolescence of multiple categories of conventional military equipment beyond just tanks.
If you look at the drone tactics, the drone tactics are changing every day.
Commenting on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Schmidt expressed surprise at the pace of innovation in drone warfare, illustrating how AI-powered systems enable rapid tactical evolution that traditional military hardware cannot match.
Our Take
Schmidt’s pronouncements carry particular weight because he’s not merely theorizing—he’s actively building the future he’s describing through White Stork. This combination of policy influence, technical expertise, and entrepreneurial investment creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where his predictions help shape the reality they forecast.
The broader AI narrative here extends beyond military applications. The pattern Schmidt describes—where AI-enabled systems achieve 1,000x cost advantages over traditional approaches—represents the core disruption mechanism of artificial intelligence across industries. Whether it’s drones versus tanks, AI coding assistants versus human programmers, or autonomous vehicles versus traditional transportation, the economic mathematics become inexorable.
However, Schmidt’s analysis may underestimate the adaptability of conventional forces. The article notes that tanks remain active and valuable despite drone threats, with crews developing countermeasures. The future likely involves AI-enhanced versions of traditional systems rather than their complete elimination, suggesting a more nuanced transformation than Schmidt’s bold predictions indicate.
Why This Matters
This story represents a critical inflection point in how artificial intelligence is reshaping military strategy and national defense. Schmidt’s predictions, backed by his extensive government advisory experience and active involvement in AI drone development, signal that AI-powered autonomous weapons are transitioning from theoretical concepts to battlefield realities.
The implications extend far beyond military applications. The dramatic cost advantage of AI drones over traditional military hardware—a 1,000:1 ratio in Schmidt’s example—demonstrates how AI can create asymmetric advantages that fundamentally disrupt established industries and power structures. This pattern of AI-driven disruption will likely replicate across civilian sectors.
For the defense industry and military contractors, this represents an existential challenge to traditional business models built around expensive platforms like tanks, ships, and aircraft. Countries and companies that fail to adapt to AI-powered autonomous systems risk strategic obsolescence. The real-world validation occurring in Ukraine provides urgent evidence that these changes are happening now, not in some distant future, accelerating the timeline for AI adoption in defense and potentially spurring faster AI development across all sectors.
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Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/eric-schmidt-drone-warfare-tanks-useless-russia-ukraine-ai