Elon Musk has reignited debate over the future of military aviation, declaring that manned fighter jets like the F-35 Lightning II are “obsolete in the age of drones.” The Tesla CEO and incoming Department of Government Efficiency leader criticized the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons program, which has lifetime costs expected to exceed $2 trillion, arguing that autonomous drone warfare represents the future of air combat.
Musk’s comments, posted on X this week, follow similar remarks from former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who recently called tanks “useless” and urged the Army to invest in drones instead. Pointing to the Ukraine war as evidence, Musk claimed human-piloted jets are “inefficient” and would “just get pilots killed” as drones and counter-air threats proliferate. Four years ago, he suggested remotely controlled uncrewed fighters would be superior alternatives to the F-35.
However, military analysts and former warfighters strongly disagree with this assessment. Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, explained that most Pentagon drones “lack the range, survivability, and payload capacity of larger, more expensive crewed jets.” She emphasized they cannot replace capabilities provided by aircraft like the F-35 or B-2 bomber, particularly in the Indo-Pacific theater where the US needs fast, low-observable platforms capable of carrying advanced sensors across vast distances.
Justin Bronk, a Royal United Services Institute airpower analyst, noted that small UAVs simply cannot meet the demands of contested airspace operations. The US military requires sophisticated platforms with higher price tags to provide the full range of capabilities needed for modern warfare. Existing remotely controlled systems meet only some demands, can cost as much as an F-35, and remain vulnerable to electronic warfare and surface-to-air threats.
The US military is actively developing AI-driven and semiautonomous aircraft, including pilotless F-16s and collaborative combat aircraft where pilots direct autonomous systems. Retired naval aviator Guy Snodgrass acknowledged advantages of uncrewed systems, noting they could pull 15-20 G’s without physiological constraints and eliminate life-support systems to make room for more sensors and weapons.
Yet experts emphasize the technology isn’t mature enough to replace crewed fighters entirely. Combat requires making decisions in uncertain, unpredictable situations where human flexibility proves invaluable. Mark Gunzinger, a retired Air Force pilot, stated that war-gaming scenarios consistently show “we need both” crewed and uncrewed systems, with the greatest impact coming from combining their strengths effectively.
Key Quotes
Manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones.
Elon Musk declared this on X this week, arguing that autonomous drone warfare represents the future and that continuing to build F-35s is inefficient and dangerous for pilots as counter-air threats proliferate.
Most of the drones that the Pentagon is investing in to increase its ‘mass’ on the battlefield or provide enough capacity to overwhelm enemy defenses are not nearly as capable as crewed aircraft. They lack the range, survivability, and payload capacity of larger, more expensive crewed jets.
Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, explained why current drone technology cannot replace advanced fighter aircraft like the F-35, particularly for operations in contested theaters like the Indo-Pacific.
We need both. And the greatest impact on warfighting, the biggest leap ahead in warfighting capabilities and capacity, is in figuring out how to combine what they both bring to the fight in the most effective way. That’s the secret sauce.
Mark Gunzinger, a retired Air Force pilot and director at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, summarized the consensus among military analysts that the optimal solution involves integrating AI-powered autonomous systems with crewed aircraft rather than choosing one over the other.
The flexibility that human pilots give you to use the machine and the systems that it has in relatively unforeseen circumstances or across a very wide variety of mission types and circumstances is something that’s very difficult to replicate in an automatic system.
Justin Bronk, a Royal United Services Institute airpower analyst, highlighted a critical limitation of current AI systems—their inability to match human adaptability and judgment in unpredictable combat situations where rigid machine logic may fail.
Our Take
This controversy exposes the gap between Silicon Valley’s AI optimism and military operational reality. While Musk’s vision of autonomous warfare aligns with rapid AI advances in controlled environments, combat aviation demands reliability, adaptability, and split-second judgment in chaotic, contested conditions where AI systems still struggle. The military’s measured approach—developing collaborative human-AI systems rather than full automation—reflects hard-won lessons about technology maturity and the irreplaceable value of human judgment under uncertainty. This debate will likely accelerate AI military investment while tempering expectations about near-term autonomous replacements for complex human roles. The real breakthrough won’t be drones replacing pilots, but AI augmenting human capabilities in hybrid systems that leverage both strengths—a lesson applicable far beyond military aviation to healthcare, transportation, and other high-stakes domains where AI hype often outpaces capability.
Why This Matters
This debate represents a critical inflection point for military AI adoption and defense spending priorities. As Musk prepares to target “wasteful” government spending through Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, his criticism of the F-35 program could influence billions in future defense allocations toward AI-powered autonomous systems.
The discussion highlights fundamental questions about AI maturity and readiness for life-or-death military applications. While AI and autonomous systems show immense promise, experts warn that current technology cannot yet match the adaptability, judgment, and multi-role capabilities of human pilots in advanced aircraft. This mirrors broader debates across industries about when AI can truly replace human expertise versus augmenting it.
For the defense industry and AI sector, this signals accelerating investment in autonomous military systems and collaborative human-AI platforms. The Pentagon’s development of AI-driven aircraft and collaborative combat systems represents a massive market opportunity, but also underscores the challenges of deploying AI in high-stakes, unpredictable environments where machine rigidity could prove fatal. The outcome will shape not just military aviation but broader AI adoption in critical infrastructure.
Recommended Reading
For those interested in learning more about artificial intelligence, machine learning, and effective AI communication, here are some excellent resources:
Recommended Reading
Related Stories
- Elon Musk Drops Lawsuit Against ChatGPT Maker OpenAI, No Explanation
- Tesla Q1 Earnings Preview: What to Expect From Elon Musk’s EV Giant
- Elon Musk Warns of Potential Apple Ban on OpenAI’s ChatGPT
- Larry Ellison’s Wealth Could Skyrocket Thanks to Tesla Stock and AI Boom
- Elon Musk’s ‘X’ AI Company Raises $370 Million in Funding Round Led by Himself
Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-crewed-fighter-jet-f-35-obsolete-drone-technology2024-11