Elon Musk is set to unveil Tesla’s ambitious robotaxi vision at Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, California, on Thursday, in an event dubbed “We, Robot” that aims to reposition Tesla as an AI and robotics company rather than just an electric vehicle manufacturer. The long-awaited Robotaxi Day, originally scheduled for August, represents a high-stakes pivot for Tesla as Musk attempts to convince investors that the company’s future lies in artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, and humanoid robots.
Musk has been building toward this moment for years. In 2019, he confidently predicted that 1 million driverless robotaxis would be operational by 2020—a deadline he missed. Now, he’s doubling down on the vision, recently announcing that Tesla will have “genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production” for internal use in 2025, with plans to sell them to other companies by 2026. The prototype, dubbed “Optimus,” was first shown in 2022.
The timing of this pivot is particularly critical. Tesla’s revenue declined to $46.8 billion in the first half of 2024, down from $48.3 billion in the same period last year, reflecting broader pressures in the EV market. The company’s valuation remains over $600 billion short of its November 2021 peak of $1.2 trillion. Industry experts attribute the slowdown to macroeconomic headwinds including higher interest rates, inflation, and pandemic aftereffects.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has called the “Tesla AI story worth $1 trillion-plus,” describing it as “the most undervalued AI name.” Andrej Karpathy, Tesla’s former director of AI, reinforced this perspective, stating that he doesn’t view Tesla as a car company because “cars are basically robots.”
However, Tesla faces formidable competition in the robotaxi space. Waymo, owned by Alphabet, has partnered with Uber, while Chinese EV maker BYD has also joined forces with Uber to deploy autonomous vehicles globally. In China, Tesla’s largest market outside the US, Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxi fleet has been operational in Wuhan since 2022, offering heavily subsidized rides to attract customers.
Technical and regulatory challenges loom large. Paul Miller, a principal analyst at Forrester, notes that true autonomous driving requires vehicles to “drive themselves pretty much anywhere a human driver could, on any type of road, in any weather conditions”—a significantly more difficult achievement than limited autonomous capabilities. Safety concerns persist following incidents involving GM-owned Cruise’s self-driving vehicles last year, which damaged public perception of the entire autonomous vehicle sector.
Key Quotes
Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for internal use next year and hoped to ramp up production to sell them to other companies in 2026.
Elon Musk wrote this on X (formerly Twitter) in July, outlining his timeline for Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot program. This statement demonstrates Musk’s commitment to expanding Tesla beyond vehicles into broader robotics and AI applications.
I didn’t think Tesla was a car company; in my view, cars are basically robots.
Andrej Karpathy, Tesla’s former director of AI, made this statement on the ‘No Priors’ podcast, providing expert validation for Musk’s vision of repositioning Tesla as an AI and robotics company rather than a traditional automaker.
The Tesla AI story could be worth $1 trillion-plus and is the most undervalued AI name.
Dan Ives, a Wedbush analyst, offered this bullish assessment in July, suggesting that Tesla’s AI capabilities represent massive untapped value that the market hasn’t fully recognized or priced into the company’s valuation.
Robotaxis, in theory, could be profitable as long as there’s not a lot of competition. The problem is that there is, and it’s already on the road.
Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management and a Tesla shareholder, expressed skepticism about the robotaxi pivot, highlighting the competitive disadvantage Tesla faces against companies like Waymo and Baidu that already have operational autonomous vehicle fleets.
Our Take
Tesla’s Robotaxi Day represents a make-or-break moment for Musk’s vision of Tesla as an AI powerhouse. The strategic pivot comes at a time when the company desperately needs a new growth narrative, but the execution risks are substantial. Unlike software AI applications where Tesla could iterate rapidly, autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots require navigating complex regulatory environments, ensuring safety at scale, and competing against well-funded rivals with significant head starts. The fact that competitors like Waymo and Baidu already have operational robotaxi services undermines Tesla’s first-mover advantage narrative. Moreover, Musk’s polarizing public persona and controversial political stances have alienated some of Tesla’s core customer base, making the business case even more challenging. The event will reveal whether Musk can deliver concrete technological breakthroughs or if this is another overpromise in a pattern of missed deadlines. The AI industry will be watching closely, as Tesla’s success or failure could significantly impact investor appetite for AI-hardware integration projects across the sector.
Why This Matters
This event represents a pivotal moment for Tesla and the broader AI industry. Musk’s attempt to reframe Tesla as an AI-first company reflects a strategic recognition that the EV market alone may not sustain the company’s trillion-dollar valuation ambitions. The robotaxi and humanoid robot initiatives position Tesla to compete directly with tech giants like Alphabet and Chinese innovators in the rapidly expanding autonomous systems market.
The outcome of Robotaxi Day will significantly influence investor confidence in AI-driven business models beyond traditional software applications. If successful, it could validate the thesis that AI and robotics represent the next major value creation opportunity for hardware companies. However, the substantial competition and technical challenges highlight the difficulty of translating AI capabilities into profitable, scalable products.
For the AI industry broadly, Tesla’s pivot underscores how artificial intelligence is reshaping traditional industries and forcing companies to reimagine their core business models. The event also raises critical questions about autonomous vehicle safety, regulatory frameworks, and the timeline for widespread AI deployment in physical-world applications—issues that will affect every company pursuing similar ambitions.
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Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-robotaxi-day-tesla-robotics-ai-2024-10