Elon Musk has ignited a fierce debate about the future of military aviation by criticizing the F-35 fighter jet program and advocating for AI-powered drones as a more efficient alternative. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the billionaire entrepreneur called out the “idiots” still building manned aircraft like the F-35, arguing that using crewed jets to extend missile range or drop bombs is “inefficient” compared to “a reusable drone.”
The criticism carries significant weight given Musk’s new role as co-lead of President-elect Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which aims to cut trillions of dollars in government spending. The F-35 program, manufactured by Lockheed Martin, is expected to cost more than $2 trillion over its entire lifespan and has been plagued by maintenance issues, making it a prime target for budget cuts.
The market responded immediately to Musk’s comments, with Lockheed Martin shares dropping 3.75% on Monday. The broader S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense index finished down more than 1%, though reports of a potential Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire deal also contributed to the sector’s decline.
While Musk didn’t explicitly announce plans to eliminate the F-35 program through DOGE, an op-ed he co-wrote with Vivek Ramaswamy mentioned the Defense Department’s $841 billion budget as an area for potential cuts. The debate reflects a broader shift in military strategy, with drone usage in combat rising dramatically, particularly evident in the Ukraine war.
However, transitioning from manned jets to AI drones isn’t straightforward. While drones offer cost benefits and have proven effective in certain combat scenarios, they face limitations in situations requiring air and sea combat dominance, particularly in the strategically crucial Indo-Pacific theater. Current drone technology may not be sophisticated enough to fully replace the capabilities of advanced fighter jets in all combat scenarios.
The jet-versus-drone debate exemplifies the challenges DOGE will encounter in its mission to reduce government spending, which totaled $6.75 trillion in fiscal year 2024. While Musk has a proven track record of achieving what others deemed impossible—such as SpaceX’s successful return of its Super Heavy booster to its launch site—the public sector operates under different constraints than private companies. Even with Republican control of Congress, government checks and balances may limit the wholesale changes Musk typically implements in his businesses.
Key Quotes
The billionaire criticized the ‘idiots’ still building aircraft like the F-35, and said using crewed jets to extend the range of missiles or drop bombs was ‘inefficient’ compared to ‘a reusable drone.’
Elon Musk’s direct criticism of the F-35 program on X demonstrates his willingness to challenge established defense programs. This matters because of his new position co-leading DOGE, giving him potential influence over defense budget decisions.
Even with a Republican-controlled Congress, the government’s checks and balances might make it harder to make the type of wholesale changes Musk is known for with his companies.
This observation from Business Insider highlights the fundamental challenge Musk faces in applying his private-sector approach to government reform, suggesting that transitioning from manned jets to AI drones may face significant institutional resistance despite potential cost savings.
Our Take
Musk’s push for AI-powered drones over manned fighter jets represents more than budget-cutting rhetoric—it’s a fundamental challenge to decades of military doctrine and industrial policy. While his track record of disrupting industries is impressive, the defense sector’s complexity and geopolitical stakes make this a far more nuanced challenge than revolutionizing electric vehicles or space travel.
The real question isn’t whether AI drones will play a larger role in warfare—they already are—but whether current AI technology is mature enough to fully replace sophisticated manned aircraft in contested environments. The Ukraine conflict has demonstrated both the potential and limitations of drone warfare. While small, inexpensive drones have proven devastatingly effective, they operate in a specific context that may not translate to high-intensity conflicts with peer adversaries.
This debate will likely accelerate AI development in military applications, potentially creating a new arms race focused on autonomous systems rather than traditional platforms.
Why This Matters
This story represents a pivotal moment in the intersection of AI technology and military strategy. Musk’s advocacy for AI-powered drones over traditional manned aircraft signals a potential paradigm shift in defense spending and warfare tactics. With his influential position in the incoming Trump administration through DOGE, these aren’t just theoretical musings—they could translate into actual policy changes affecting hundreds of billions in defense contracts.
The implications extend beyond military applications. This debate highlights the broader trend of AI and autonomous systems replacing human-operated equipment across industries, raising questions about job displacement, technological readiness, and strategic vulnerabilities. The F-35 program’s potential vulnerability to budget cuts demonstrates how AI alternatives are increasingly viewed as viable replacements for expensive, traditional systems.
For the defense industry, this represents an existential challenge to established business models. Companies like Lockheed Martin may need to pivot toward autonomous systems and AI-driven warfare technologies. The market’s immediate negative reaction to Musk’s comments shows investors are taking these threats seriously, potentially accelerating the industry’s transformation toward AI-powered military solutions.
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Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-f35-manned-fighter-jets-drones-warfare-doge-cuts-2024-11