Copper prices have surged past $12,000 per ton for the first time, rising more than 40% in the past year, driven largely by the explosive demand from AI infrastructure development. As the AI industry continues its rapid expansion, requiring massive amounts of copper for data centers, chips, and electrical infrastructure, a controversial Alaska mining project has emerged as a potential solution to looming supply shortages.
The Pebble Mine project in Bristol Bay, Alaska, has been stalled in political and environmental limbo for over a decade, spanning three presidential administrations. Despite sitting on what its owners claim is the world’s largest undeveloped store of both copper and gold, along with significant deposits of molybdenum and silver—all critical materials for AI infrastructure—the mine has been blocked since 2014 under an EPA provision.
According to a recent S&P Global study, copper production is expected to peak in 2030, leaving the world facing a shortage of approximately 10 million metric tons by 2040 unless production increases substantially. This supply crisis comes at a critical time when AI companies are racing to build out data centers and computing infrastructure that relies heavily on copper wiring and components.
Deantha Skibinski, executive director of the Alaska Miners Association, emphasized that “Pebble is a world-class deposit” with immense copper reserves. She noted that few US copper producers possess reserves comparable to what Pebble Mine offers. The project was controversially vetoed by the EPA in 2014 during its exploratory phase after failing a watershed assessment—a decision Skibinski calls “unprecedented” because it came before the company entered the permitting process.
The mine’s location in Bristol Bay, home to one of America’s richest sockeye salmon runs, has made it a flashpoint between economic development and environmental conservation. Local and commercial fishing organizations have strongly opposed the project, fearing potential impacts on the valuable fisheries.
Under the Trump administration’s push to secure domestic supplies of critical materials, advocates believe the Pebble Mine deserves reconsideration. Lisa Reimers, CEO of Iliamna Development and area native, stressed that “copper is vital for meeting our needs of a modern society” and that Pebble Mine is “important for the United States so we are not to be dependent on foreign companies for copper.” However, reports from 2020 indicated that Donald Trump Jr. opposed the mine’s construction due to environmental concerns, creating uncertainty about the current administration’s stance.
Key Quotes
Pebble is a world-class deposit. The copper in the ground at the pebble project is immense.
Deantha Skibinski, executive director of the Alaska Miners Association, emphasized the scale of the copper reserves at Pebble Mine, highlighting its potential significance for meeting AI-driven demand for the critical metal.
What they did, which we contend is not legal, is that they issued the 404(c) veto preemptively, meaning before the company went into permitting. And that is unprecedented.
Skibinski criticized the EPA’s 2014 decision to block the mine during its exploratory phase, arguing the agency overstepped its authority by vetoing the project before the normal permitting process could proceed.
It is crucial for the President and all the federal agencies that may be holding up Pebble to understand that copper is vital for meeting our needs of a modern society that relies on it. Pebble Mine is an important project for the United States so we are not to be dependent on foreign companies for copper.
Lisa Reimers, CEO of Iliamna Development and Alaska native, framed the mine as essential for US strategic independence in critical materials, particularly as AI infrastructure demands surge.
Our Take
The Pebble Mine controversy reveals an uncomfortable reality for the AI industry: the digital revolution has very physical constraints. While tech companies focus on algorithms and computing power, the copper wiring that connects it all could become the limiting factor. The projected shortage of 10 million metric tons by 2040 isn’t abstract—it represents real constraints on data center construction, chip manufacturing, and electrical infrastructure that AI depends upon. This situation may force difficult conversations about environmental tradeoffs, push innovation in copper recycling and alternatives, or accelerate AI companies’ involvement in resource policy. The irony is striking: an industry built on dematerialization and cloud computing may find its future determined by century-old debates about mining and natural resources. How the US resolves the Pebble Mine question could signal whether it’s willing to make hard choices to maintain AI leadership.
Why This Matters
This story highlights a critical tension at the heart of the AI revolution: the massive physical infrastructure required to support digital transformation. As AI companies race to build data centers and expand computing capacity, they’re creating unprecedented demand for copper and other critical minerals. The looming 10 million metric ton copper shortage by 2040 could become a significant bottleneck for AI development, potentially slowing innovation and driving up costs across the industry.
The Pebble Mine controversy illustrates the difficult tradeoffs between technological progress and environmental protection. With limited domestic copper production, the US faces a strategic vulnerability in its AI ambitions, potentially becoming dependent on foreign suppliers for materials essential to national competitiveness. The outcome of this debate could set important precedents for how America balances environmental concerns against the resource demands of emerging technologies. For the AI industry, securing reliable supplies of copper and other critical materials may prove as important as breakthroughs in algorithms or chip design, making resource policy a crucial factor in maintaining technological leadership.
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Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/pebble-mine-copper-prices-supply-demand-ai-data-centers-trump-2026-1