A groundbreaking new study from Stanford University has revealed the stark impact of artificial intelligence on entry-level programming jobs, showing a dramatic decline in employment opportunities for young coders since the emergence of generative AI tools. The research, published Tuesday by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen, found that early-career workers aged 22-25 in AI-exposed occupations experienced a 13% relative decline in employment after controlling for broader economic factors.
The findings are particularly alarming for software engineers and customer service workers, identified as among the most AI-exposed professions. By July 2025, employment for developers aged 22-25 fell nearly 20% compared to its peak in late 2022, while employment for more experienced workers in the same roles remained stable or even grew. The researchers noted these patterns emerged most prominently beginning in late 2022—coinciding with OpenAI’s ChatGPT launch in November 2022.
The Stanford team analyzed data from ADP, America’s largest payroll processing firm, examining records for 3.5 to 5 million workers monthly. Their findings suggest that while AI automation is displacing entry-level workers, it’s not universally negative: employment actually grew in jobs where AI augmented rather than automated human work.
This research confirms what many tech executives have been signaling. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg predicted in January that companies would soon have AI functioning as “a sort of midlevel engineer.” Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski stopped hiring in 2023, believing “AI can already do all of the jobs that we as humans do.” Similarly, Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke required managers to prove AI couldn’t perform a role better before approving new hires, while Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn announced plans to replace contractors with AI for tasks it can handle.
The study’s timing aligns with broader tech industry trends. An Indeed Hiring Lab report from July found tech job opportunities have been scarce since mid-2023 after peaking in early 2022, with automation potentially driving the drop in postings. The Burning Glass Institute separately reported that unemployment rates for Gen Z and younger millennials in computer and math occupations have increased from pre-pandemic levels in 2018-2019.
While the researchers acknowledge that factors beyond generative AI—including the end of pandemic-era hiring booms and less favorable economic conditions—may influence these trends, their results strongly support the hypothesis that generative AI has fundamentally begun reshaping entry-level employment in tech.
Key Quotes
The facts we document may in part be influenced by factors other than generative AI, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that generative AI has begun to affect entry-level employment.
Stanford researchers Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen carefully framed their findings, acknowledging multiple factors while establishing that generative AI is demonstrably impacting entry-level job markets—a significant academic validation of widespread industry concerns.
His company and others will likely this year have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg made this prediction in January, signaling that AI capabilities are advancing beyond simple task automation to performing complex engineering work, directly threatening traditional career progression in tech.
AI can already do all of the jobs that we as humans do.
Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski made this bold statement when announcing his company stopped hiring in 2023, representing one of the most aggressive stances among tech executives regarding AI’s capability to replace human workers.
Gradually stop using contractors to do work that AI can handle.
Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn communicated this directive to staff in an April memo, demonstrating how AI adoption is moving from theoretical discussion to concrete workforce reduction strategies across the tech industry.
Our Take
This Stanford study represents a watershed moment in understanding AI’s labor market impact, moving beyond speculation to hard data. What’s particularly concerning is the asymmetric effect: AI eliminates entry-level positions while benefiting experienced workers, creating a dangerous skills gap. The tech industry may be inadvertently sawing off the branch it sits on—today’s entry-level workers are tomorrow’s senior engineers. The 20% decline since ChatGPT’s launch is just the beginning; as AI capabilities improve, this displacement will likely accelerate and spread to other knowledge work sectors. However, the finding that AI-augmented roles are growing suggests a path forward: education and hiring practices must pivot toward roles where humans and AI collaborate rather than compete. The real question is whether this transition can happen fast enough to prevent a lost generation of tech talent.
Why This Matters
This Stanford study provides the first comprehensive, data-driven evidence that generative AI is already displacing entry-level tech workers, marking a pivotal moment in the AI revolution’s impact on employment. The 20% decline in young developer jobs since late 2022 signals a fundamental shift in how companies approach hiring and workforce development. For the AI industry, this validates both the technology’s capabilities and concerns about its disruptive potential.
The findings have profound implications for education and career planning, suggesting that traditional entry-level pathways into tech may be closing. Universities and coding bootcamps may need to radically rethink their curricula to prepare students for an AI-augmented workplace rather than roles AI can automate. The research also highlights a critical paradox: while AI creates opportunities for experienced workers who can leverage it, it simultaneously eliminates the entry-level positions that traditionally built that expertise. This could create a “missing generation” of tech workers, potentially leading to future talent shortages as experienced professionals retire without sufficient junior talent to replace them.
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Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/theres-more-bad-news-for-entry-level-coders-ai-study-2025-8