A new report from Macro Research Board Partners challenges the widespread belief that artificial intelligence is the primary driver of U.S. economic growth, revealing that consumer spending remains the backbone of GDP expansion in 2025. Economic strategist Prajakta Bhide authored the January report, which contradicts concerns about an AI bubble threatening the entire economy.
The research found that while AI investment contributed to GDP growth, its impact has been significantly overstated. Personal consumption by everyday Americans continues to be the largest pillar supporting economic growth, not AI infrastructure spending. Bhide explained that much of the high-tech equipment purchased for AI development is imported, and imports do not contribute positively to GDP calculations.
The four main categories that count toward GDP are personal consumption, private domestic investment, government spending, and net exports. According to the report, AI growth served as an important secondary driver, but primarily through software investment rather than physical infrastructure. The contribution of data centers to GDP growth was found to be “negligible.”
“Without an AI boom, there would have certainly been less GDP growth last year, but there would also be fewer imports, so that overall real growth would still have been decent,” Bhide wrote. She emphasized that consumers remain resilient despite lower aggregate income growth and job growth affecting consumer sentiment. Interestingly, there’s a disconnect between consumer pessimism and actual spending behavior—people say they feel uncertain but continue to spend.
The report addresses growing concerns about an AI bubble that could potentially crash the economy. America’s eight most valuable public companies, including Nvidia, Alphabet, and Apple, are collectively worth $22 trillion and are heavily invested in AI technology. However, Bhide’s analysis suggests that even a negative shock to AI optimism would not cause the U.S. economy to falter entirely.
The research also provides historical context: pullbacks in consumer spending have rarely triggered economic downturns. Instead, spending typically weakens only after significant job losses accumulate and a recession is already underway. This pattern suggests the economy has more resilience than AI bubble fears might indicate.
Key Quotes
In short, without an AI boom, there would have certainly been less GDP growth last year, but there would also be fewer imports, so that overall real growth would still have been decent
Economic strategist Prajakta Bhide wrote this in her report, explaining that AI’s net contribution to GDP is smaller than commonly believed because much AI infrastructure spending goes toward imported equipment, which doesn’t boost domestic GDP.
Consumers continue to be the backbone of the economy
Bhide told Business Insider this when explaining that personal consumption remains the primary GDP driver, not AI investment, despite the massive attention and capital flowing into artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Although a negative shock to the optimism around AI implies a risk to GDP growth, the more realistic (and smaller) estimate of AI’s growth impact after adjusting for imports dispels the popular notion that the US economy would falter without it
This key finding from Bhide’s report directly challenges AI bubble fears, suggesting the economy has sufficient diversification to withstand an AI correction without collapsing.
Our Take
This report provides a much-needed reality check amid AI hype and bubble fears. While AI is transforming industries and capturing headlines, the fundamentals of economic growth haven’t changed—consumer behavior still matters most. The finding that AI infrastructure spending is largely offset by imports reveals an uncomfortable truth: America is funding AI development but not necessarily capturing all the economic benefits domestically. This suggests policymakers should focus on domestic AI manufacturing capabilities alongside software innovation. For investors worried about AI bubble risks, this analysis offers measured reassurance while highlighting that AI’s economic impact, though real, is more modest than market valuations might suggest. The disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending behavior also indicates that economic resilience may be stronger than pessimistic forecasts predict, providing a buffer against potential AI sector corrections.
Why This Matters
This report carries significant implications for investors, policymakers, and businesses navigating the AI revolution. With $22 trillion in market capitalization concentrated in AI-focused tech giants, concerns about an AI bubble have intensified throughout 2025. This research provides crucial perspective, suggesting the economy is more diversified and resilient than bubble fears suggest.
For the AI industry, this analysis indicates that while AI investment is important, it hasn’t yet achieved the transformative economic dominance many predicted. The finding that AI infrastructure spending is largely offset by imports reveals a potential vulnerability in America’s AI strategy—significant capital is flowing overseas rather than multiplying domestically.
For businesses and investors, the report offers reassurance that an AI correction wouldn’t necessarily trigger economic collapse, but it also suggests AI’s near-term economic impact may be overhyped. Companies should continue AI investments strategically rather than assuming AI alone will drive growth. The emphasis on consumer spending as the economic backbone reminds businesses that understanding and serving consumer needs remains paramount, regardless of technological trends.
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Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/one-activity-remained-largest-driver-gdp-growth-2025-not-ai-2026-1